Kerala delivers verdict, Congress delivers delay: A long history of last-minute twists

In Kerala politics, the Congress party has often followed a strange pattern. Just when victory seems close, something unexpected changes the direction. The current race for the Chief Minister’s post is again becoming a story of uncertainty, last-minute shifts, and old memories returning. As the Congress-led UDF’s strong win in the May 4 Assembly elections sends leaders to Delhi, the final decision still looks far from settled.

The mood inside the party is tense but familiar. Many senior leaders say they have seen this before; when expectations rise in Kerala, final decisions often get reshaped in Delhi.

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UDF’s big win sets the stage for a new power battle

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) delivered a major political result in the Kerala Assembly elections held on May 4. The alliance won a massive 102 seats, marking a strong comeback.

The ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, suffered a major setback. It managed only 35 seats after hoping for a historic third consecutive term.

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) also made a small return, winning 3 seats.

This unexpected wave of support for the UDF has now opened the race for the top post in the state. Attention has quickly shifted from election celebration to internal competition. The decision now rests with the Congress high command in Delhi.

Three leaders are at the centre of this discussion: VD Satheesan, Ramesh Chennithala, and KC Venugopal. All three are strong contenders, and each has his own support base within the party.

Delhi becomes the real battlefield for Kerala’s CM decision

While Kerala celebrates the election result, the real political battle has moved to Delhi. The Congress leadership will decide who will become the next Chief Minister if the UDF forms the government.

However, nothing is simple in this decision-making process. Congress insiders say that past experience shows that expectations often change at the last moment.

The presence of three major contenders has made the situation more complex. Satheesan, Chennithala, and Venugopal all bring different strengths: electoral leadership, experience, and organisational control.

A history of sudden shifts and last-minute surprises

The current situation is not new for Congress in Kerala. The party has a long history of dramatic last-minute changes in leadership decisions.

In 2011, just before the meeting to choose the legislative leader, Ramesh Chennithala surprised everyone by stepping out of the race in front of television cameras. This move cleared the way for Oommen Chandy to become Chief Minister.

But Chennithala did not stay out of power for long. In 2014, he returned strongly to the Cabinet, and Oommen Chandy had to give up the powerful Home portfolio.

That same period also saw VD Satheesan face disappointment. Despite expectations, he was not included in the Chandy Cabinet.

Going further back, in 2001, Oommen Chandy himself faced a similar setback. Even though he played a key role in AK Antony’s electoral success, he did not get a place in the Cabinet.

In 2021, Ramesh Chennithala experienced one of his biggest political disappointments. As Leader of Opposition, he led the UDF campaign with confidence that the government would fall. Instead, Pinarayi Vijayan made history by becoming the first Chief Minister in Kerala to win a second consecutive term.

Later, when the Opposition leadership was decided, the party chose VD Satheesan over Chennithala, adding to his frustration.

New controversy over party rules and leadership choice

This time, another layer of complexity has been added. Congress president Mallikarjuna Kharge had reportedly instructed in March that sitting Lok Sabha MPs should not contest state elections.

But KC Venugopal, one of the key strategists in the party and a sitting MP from Alappuzha, is now one of the top contenders for the Chief Minister’s post.

If Venugopal is chosen, it could effectively break or bend an internal rule set by the party high command itself.

This possibility has added tension within the party.